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ADAPTATION in this context means to respond to expected or
real changes in climate conditions or their effects as an opportunity
to reduce harm and to increase benefits.
Choices of programs and methods for adaptation need to be reviewed
carefully for benefits, costs, effectiveness, and efficiency and
whether, in fact, they are possible.
Since the 1940s normal temperatures have increased. The 1990s
recorded the greatest change or deviation from normal temperatures.
The increased temperatures reduced the need for heating energy in the last decade of the twentieth century.
The effects from El Nino and La Nina events in the Pacific Ocean
increased Ontario temperatures in the same years. These events
caused up to a 20% warming, that is an overall decrease in the heating-degree
days (HDD) of 20%.
Atmospheric-oceanic events add to the already complex factors
that influence natural variability in climate. Climate change
projections for changes in temperature add to the natural uncertainty
and variability of future heating demands.
Climate change and heat island effects in our big cities, such
as Toronto, are considered as "likely" contributing
factors to the decline in HDD in the last (20th) century.
The lows are not so low now and the minimum highs are higher!
Toronto as a heat island will experience new minimum highs. Individuals
are already taking some adaptive measures, for example, planting shade
trees, using lighter colors in clothing, and buildings with sun
blocking glass. The city has provided areas for heat relief for
the public in the downtown core in recent years. The new Toronto
Water Cooling Project is described in "Success" on
this website.
Increased use of public transportation will cool the city since
less heat would be released from the reduced number of automobiles.
Solar, wind, and heat pumps as off-grid generation of electricity
using less or no fossil fuel, and public transportation, energy
conserving appliances, better insulation of buildings are all
measures which reduce the amount of heat released. Reducing use
of fossil fuel generated electricity and use of vehicles also
reduces the carbon dioxide emissions, or mitigates the effects
of climate change.
Green roof projects and designing buildings, as ecosystems in
an envelope that can regulate internal conditions regardless
of seasonal conditions, are two new programs responding to climate change. Many are insulating their homes and
sealing heat leaks because of increased fuel costs. This also
serves to reduce the amount of fossil fuel burned and hence the
CO2 and heat released. See the Section 7.2.2.2, Mitigation.
Much more planning and action is needed by all concerned to
reduce the effect of increased temperatures due to climate change.
The following findings are based on a special report on the
science of climate change to the Ontario Legislature from ECO. They
should be put into the context of these 4 charts.
There is a need to move beyond debate and to focus on action. Key science evidence shows that human-induced climate
change is in fact occurring and may be causing serious environmental
damage for our future.
Some successes to date:
- Hazardous wastes: 2001 a proposal to adopt US land disposal
restrictions, 2002 new hazardous waste fees and improved information
gathering, closure of hospital incinerators were noted.
- Sprawl and Transportation: new Ministry of Public Infrastructure
Renewal to deal with urban sprawl and transportation, especially
in the Greater Toronto Area.
- Oak Ridges Moraine: set aside land to contain urban sprawl
through a moratorium in 2001 then a Conservation Act 2001 Conservation
Plan in 2002
Source: Gord Miller, Environmental Commissioner Ontario - A special
report
ACTIVITY 1
- Choose one recommendation on the above charts and research
the steps required to implement this adaptive action in your
area.
Agriculture and Forestry
In response to global warming, Ontario's climate is projected
to warm by more than 5 oC in the next century. Last
century the temperature only increased by 0.7 oC.
Even small increases in present temperatures increase vulnerability
to impacts of change. A subtle warming of 1-2 oC can
significantly change land use and biodiversity especially in
rural areas. Warmer annual temperatures will shift the 2800 CHU
line northward and land use changes could be made from wooded
or wetland areas to agriculture. 2900 CHU is the present northern
range of Carolinian forest in Ontario. The area with at least
3200 CHU shows 4% forest cover remaining. With affordable irrigation
these areas may lose even more Carolinian woods to become market
garden crops. See Ecosystems sections.
Recreation and Tourism
The length of seasons for recreational activities will change as
periods of warmer weather grow longer and winters become shorter,
even milder. Venues and support for the sports and recreational
facilities will have to adjust. For example, shifts in use from
snowmobiles to watercraft and from snowboarding to skateboarding.
Recreational boating may be vulnerable with lower water levels.
Beaches may grow bigger as more shoreline appears. Water quality
maybe affected by algal blooms. Waste water/sewage treatment
locations, more vulnerable to overflow or bypasses during major
thawing or heavy rain events, may limit water contact recreation
due to bacterial outbreaks, for example, E. coli
Plant and animal species will change as some are overstressed
and tend to migrate north with temperature changing the appearance
and behaviour of natural ecosystems.
Ontario fall colour tours may be less colorful or change their
timing, as deciduous trees do not experience the cold nights
and warm days needed to trigger fall changes. The tourism industry
will have to check carefully to adjust their programs.
Source for all 4 above charts:
International Joint Commission (IJC) Climate Change and Water
Quality in the Great Lakes Region. May2003 www.ijc.org
The lower water levels of the Great Lakes make the Seaway vulnerable.
Reduced tonnage per vessel may be needed to be able to navigate
up to and through the Great Lakes. Alternate vessels and alternate
routes may have to be considered. See Section 7.2.1a Hydrology
The table below addresses the climate change issue of Seaway
activity on the US side only.
Source : International Joint Commission (IJC) Climate
Change and Water Quality in the Great Lakes Region. May2003 www.ijc.org
ACTIVITY 2
- Note that all cargoes listed as commodities are subject to
lower water levels.
Which commodity has decreased tonnage in this period?
- Calculate the increase in total tonnage between 1991 and
2000.
- Calculate the increase in tonnage for the 2 yellow and
2 chosen red commodities.
ACTIVITY 3 Research:
What is the Ontario equivalent in Seaway usage for this period?
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