|
Canada's Climate Models and Climate Change Scenarios are used world-wide!
Climate models are simplified mathematical representations of the Earth's
climate system. Complex equations are solved using a 3-D grid over the globe.
Climate models try to simulate or imitate the components and processes at work
in an actual climate system.
Climate models are designed to respond to changes internal changes in the
climate system as well as external changes that are based on assumptions made
by the scientists using the models. Climate change models can be used to run
the scenarios needed for looking at future possibilities based on present and
past knowledge. Teams of meteorologists, mathematicians and computer specialists
have been developing climate models for forty years.
The basic model is known as the General Circulation Model or GCM. When factors
from atmosphere (A), oceans and sea-ice linkages (O) are linked or coupled
to the GCM. The models are called AOGCMs. The coupled models provide a more
comprehensive simulation of a climate system. See the chart below showing the
historical development of climate models. www.cccma.bc.ec.gc.ca/models.
The third generation of AGCM's is in the final stage of development and testing
in 2005.
From IPCC 2001
The CGCM2 was used to run the 2001 IPCC report as well as the ongoing Arctic
Climate Impact Assessment. The latest Canadian Global Coupled Model (CGCM2)
has improved ocean-mixing limits and has added sea-ice dynamics. The more factors
that are linked or coupled for consideration by the model, the closer the projections
are to the natural conditions and events that affect climate. www.cccma.bc.ec.gc.ca
Scientists first include the physical properties of Earth, especially its
oceans, ice and atmosphere, with their processes, reactions, interactions and
feedback loops into the mathematical model. Climate models will become even
more complex to include chemical and biological processes. www.dar.csiro.au/ccrp/index.html
Based on actual collected climate data, climate model predictions try to produce
the best estimate of a future climate. Climate models are tested by using data
from past climate records to predict known present observations. E.g. the model
uses 1900-1920 temperatures to make projections of 1970-1990 temperatures.
Such testing or validation increases the reliability of predictions made by
the model.
The accuracy of the predicted results reflects the reliability the model will
have. The latest models are now including temperatures from greater ocean depth
limits and sea ice. Climate models allow scientists to move from known to unknown
conditions using a validated model one built on solid data and tested performance.
For more details, see go to Contents 2.3
Also research the Canadian model for ocean behaviour developed in BC and now
being used for Tsunami predictions.
Environment Canada developed the first index measurement tools for reporting
solar radiation UV. This system is now uses world-wide. Canada also manages
the international data for the world-wide UNEP program for UV.
See UV website www.msc-smc.ec.gc.ca/education/uvindex/resources/highschoolresourcepage_e.html
for more information and the 'Solar UV in our World' on-line resource booklet developed
by Association for Canadian Educational Resources (ACER) for the UV information
and awareness program.
ACTIVITY 1
- List 4 components that were added to climate models
after the early 1990s.
- Name 3 other countries that have international climate
models.
- How are climate models validated?
- What are the most difficult
components ie have the
most variables - to add to a climate model?
ACTIVITY 2 - Research
What is the ocean depth limit now included in climate
models?
How does National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administrative
monitor ocean temperatures? Hint www.noaa.org/
Quote from website Oct. 13, 2005
The free-floating Argo "robot
oceanographers," a successful observation program that
began in 2000 and is part of the global observing system to
monitor Earth's
oceans, reached
two
milestones: two-thirds completion of the international global
array and the collection of nearly 55,000 profiles by the U.S.
floats.
(NOAA)
ACTIVITY 3
- Review the daily news. There are many new initiatives in 2004 and
2005.
- Check out Environment Canada, Natural Resources Canada, Agriculture
Canada and Heritage Canada!
- Choose a national environmental program you would like to research.
How does this affect you and how could you respond?
|
